Three weeks ago, Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a $322 billion state budget for the fiscal year that begins on July 1, emphasizing that it would be balanced without new taxes and have a “modest” $363 million surplus.

The latter number is scarcely one-tenth of 1% of the overall budget, which makes one wonder how Newsom’s budget writers could calculate it so precisely. It may have been plucked from thin air so the first draft of the budget could be portrayed as balanced.

In fact, its purported balance assumes that at least $11 billion in drawdowns from emergency reserves, bookkeeping gimmicks and off-the-books loans can be counted as revenues. So by its own numbers, the proposed budget is actually leaking red ink.

Furthermore, the budget is already scrap paper because the deadly wildfires that were scorching Southern California as it was being released will clobber tax revenues while imposing massive new financial burdens. The $2.5 billion hastily appropriated by the Legislature is only a down payment on what the state may have to spend on fire suppression and recovery.

That would be true even if President Donald Trump supplied billions of dollars in federal disaster aid that Newsom and other officials are seeking. During his visit to the fire scene last week, Trump both promised to help the region recover and suggested that the state should change some of its environmental and immigration policies in return.

If federal aid is not forthcoming, or is markedly less than being sought, the impact on state finances — both in loss of revenue and new spending — could be immense, potentially encompassing all of the state’s emergency reserves and then some.